The Demise of Moore's Law

Moore’s law technically is not a law, but is considered as one since it has accompanied computing and electronics for years. This law is considered more as a techno-economic model, which refers to Gordon Moore’s perception, consisting in the number of transistors on a microchip doubling every two years. It states that the speed and capacity of our computers will increase every couple of years, and as a result we will pay less for them. We are living an era when functionality has more priority than physical specifications, but how is this fact impacting Moore’s law?

Law in action (1970-2018)

Let’s assess the situation: an iPhone today processes many times more computing power than the entire spacecraft for the NASA Apollo moon mission in 1969. This is only because of Moore's law. Without this law, we would not have Google or Facebook or Uber or other necessary platforms that we use each day. Despite the years that have passed, this law still stands and is implemented by many companies, successful ones which keep pace with technology.

Keeping up with Moore’s law is an essential for businesses, so that they can remain competitive and not fall faster than their rivals who follow every step of technology. A story of success is Steve Jobs, who made sure that his business kept up with new technology. Jobs oversaw the development of iMac, iTunes, iPod, iPhone and iPad. By making sure that each of the products was up to date, overtime, he made Apple one of the most competitive companies on the market. We are witnessing the strong rivalry Apple faces to its competitors. Meanwhile Kodak is the opposite example no company would like to follow. Everyone knows Kodak, but no one uses it anymore. The company was hesitant to move on and adapt with technology, while its competitors Sony & Cannon saw an opening door to success.

To keep pace with Moore’s law doesn’t only mean physical changes, but it is linked to other phases of development. Even these days, manufactures are updated with the law, this also impacts the competition between different manufactures. Also, Moore’s law is attached with new technologies that provide better design tools; as a result, we have better products for customers. Just like customers who demand good products, engineers adapt and produce better solutions for them. Advancing knowledge is an undeniable factor which has helped the continuation of this law.

Moore’s Economic & Technological Perspective 

Moore's law plays a role in economics too. Moore used the number for which the cost component was at a minimum, rather than focusing on the maximum/average number of components. Easily, many components would increase the cost per component; Moore's law is not only doubling the number of components per microchip, but it presents the most economical way to do so. The exponential improvement has enhanced the impact of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the economy around the world.

Many digital devices are strongly linked to Moore's law: memory capacity, speed, sensors or even the size of pixels on camera. Transistors in integrated circuits become more efficient, and computer become smaller and faster. Computers, smartphones or other devices would not be able to work without tiny processors. We are aware of the transformation that our everyday devices have undergone. In addition to adapting technology and time, smaller and faster computers improve other aspects of life: transportation, education, health care, energy production etc. Engineers have increased computing power and energy in an efficient way. 

Is Moore’s Law Ending? 

Murphy's Law: Anything that can go wrong will go wrong

Moore’s law has been active for 45 years. Although it has played an important role in technology, we are not ready to end this law. The primary observation of this law has been to make transistors & wires (which process information) smaller and smaller. Thus, many experts and physicians state that this will not last very long. The minimization of computing components can't go forever, given the laws of physics. By getting smaller and smaller, processing faster and faster, chips will get more and more heat, so will not be able to generate such power. The high temperature of transistors will make it impossible to create smaller circuits. Also, it will require more energy to cool down the transistors. Shrinking transistors have powered advances in computing for a very long time, but this law can't continue for long.  

Moore's law is applicable to modern smartphone chips as phone chips are more powerful, feature-full and more densely packed than ever. We will continue to see transistor density improvements over the next years. However, manufacturers may find this difficult. In 2012, with its 22-nanometer (nm) processor, Intel was able to boast having the world's smallest and most advanced transistors in a mass-produced product.8 In 2014, Intel launched an even smaller, more powerful 14nm chip and today, the company is struggling to bring its 10nm chip to market. It is possible that Moore’s law could still fail before 2030. 

No transistors = no Moore's law. Counting transistors is one thing, but what is the purpose of them it they do not offer higher performance? Still, we can see that performance isn't quite doubling every two years anymore. Engineers must find other ways to make our devices more capable. Technology is expanding, so are possibilities and methods to find better solutions. Cloud computing, the Internet of Things, quantum physics and Natural Computing can play a role in the future of techno world.